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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.