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A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."